August 22, 2009

Gartner Hype Cycle – what an innovator needs to know...

If you ever wondered what all the analysts and researchers do – here is one example. Attached is an image of the Hype Cycle published by Gartner – this talks about how a new technology or idea actually becomes a mass use product.

Each idea goes through an initial trigger and then you have people talking about it as the next big thing. Everyone’s talking about it then and people start expecting a lot from it. This is the phase of ‘Inflated Expectations’. Once it reaches a peak, there is a steep fall and there is disillusionment all around.

The innovation has to survive this phase and then slowly there is refinement and best practice development in the products/ services. This is when a large number of users actually start coming in.

As an innovator, you have to ensure that your idea survives through these expectation peaks and troughs. You also have to ensure that you maintain your lead during the slope of enlightenment and plateau of productivity.

We have had numerous instances where the innovator is not the one who finally makes the most of the money/ gets the market share of the product. It is apparent that innovating is one thing and making it a successful business venture is different.

So, if you are looking for the next big idea, look at the hype cycle for Emerging Technologies published in August 2009. This will also tell you what to expect in the coming years.

Enjoy it or even make money out of it! If you are looking at investments in these technologies, look at this matrix here.

Source: Image published in Times of India Bangalore edition. For more reports, you need to subscribe to Gartner’s reports (
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